The New Zealand dollar gained ground against the greenback following the release of unexpectedly positive retail sales data for the March 2024 quarter that ended two years of declines. The US new home sales data for April missed forecasts. However, the first-time unemployment claims data was better than expected. Still, the overwhelmingly positive New Zealand retail sales data enabled the NZD/USD pair to rise from 0.6088 to 0.6122 in the past 24 hours.
According to Statistics New Zealand, the country’s retail sales volumes grew by 0.50% q-o-q in the March 2024 quarter to N$25 billion after a 1.80% decline in the previous quarter, surpassing forecasts of a 0.30% decline.
New Zealand’s total value of retail sales rose by 0.70% q-o-q (or N$197 million) in the March 2024 quarter to N$30 billion. The total value of retail sales rose by 0.60% (or N$193 million) compared with the March 2023 quarter.
On a y-o-y basis, the country’s cumulative value of actual stock fell by 3.70% (or N$357 million) in 1Q 2024 to N$9.40 billion.
Nine out of 15 industries recorded higher sales volumes in the March 2024 quarter compared with the December 2023 quarter.
Hardware, building, and garden supplies recorded a decline of 2.80% q-o-q in the March 2024 quarter. However, food and beverage services posted an increase of 2.20% in the same period. Likewise, motor vehicle and parts retailing grew by 1.10% in 1Q 2024. Recreational goods retailing increased by 4.70%, while accommodation grew by 4.10%.
Eight out of 15 industries posted higher sales values in the March 2024 quarter compared with the December 2023 quarter.
Including price effects, New Zealand’s food and beverage services rose by 3.40% q-o-q (or N$133 million) in the March 2024 quarter. Hardware, building, and garden supplies recorded a decline of 2.60% q-o-q (or N$71 million) in 1Q 2024. Supermarkets and grocery stores inched up 0.80% q-o-q (or N$54 million). Accommodation posted an increase of 4% q-o-q (N$53 million) in the March 2024 quarter. Similarly, clothing, footwear, and personal accessories recorded a rise of 3.60% q-o-q (or N$45 million) in the first quarter.
According to the US Department of Labor, the country’s unemployment claims declined to 215,000 in the week ending May 18, from 223,000 (upwardly revised from 222,000) in the previous week. The reported figures were better than forecasts of 220,000 first-time jobless claims.
Furthermore, the four-week moving average was 219,750, an increase from 218,000 (upwardly amended from 217,750) in the previous week.
The US Census Bureau has stated that the country’s new home sales declined by 4.70% to 634,000 units in April from 665,000 units in the previous month, missing forecasts of 677,000 units. The reported figure is 7.70% below the April 2023 reading of 687,000 units.
The unexpectedly positive New Zealand retail sales data is expected to keep the NZD/USD pair slightly bullish in the near term.
The historical price chart indicates that the NZD/USD pair is consolidating at the support level of 0.6095. The next resistance is anticipated to be only near 0.6220. Additionally, the currency pair is trading above its 50-day moving average, while the MACD indicator is showing a positive reading. Therefore, we anticipate the NZD/USD pair to remain in an uptrend in the near term.
Disclaimer: Any financial trading analysis offered here is our opinion and is not intended as advice or direction for investors. We cannot guarantee the success of any trades made as a consequence of this article, and we encourage traders to incorporate a strong money management strategy to limit losses when they enter the markets. Please use this article as part of your own research before formulating strategies prior to trading.
