The euro remained range-bound against the greenback yesterday following the release of flat economic data from both Germany and the US. While Germany’s GfK consumer climate index stood almost unchanged in April, the US house price index remained flat in January. Overall, the EUR/USD pair traded in a range of 1.0835 to 1.0865 in the past 24 hours.
The German GfK consumer climate index modestly improved to -27.40 for April from -28.80 for March and surpassed forecasts of -27.90.
The increase in the consumer climate index was led by the indicator representing willingness to save. Specifically, the willingness to save indicator stood at 12.40 points in March, down 5 points from the previous month. Despite the decrease, the indicator’s reading remains at an unusually high level.
In contrast, the inclination towards saving stood at a mere 1.3 points during the corresponding period of the previous year, marking a notable surge of over 11 points.
The indicator representing income expectations failed to sustain the momentum recorded in the preceding month, characterized by a steep surge of over 15 points. The indicator posted a small uptick of 3.3 points, ending at -1.5 points presently.
Nevertheless, the upward trajectory in income expectations did not result in a positive outcome on the propensity to purchase, which recorded a slight decline compared with the previous month. The indicator fell by 0.30 points to end at -15.30 points. On a y-o-y basis, the propensity to purchase indicator inched up 1.70 points in March 2024. On the contrary, the income expectations indicator jumped 22.80 points in the same period.
Economic expectations grew slightly by 3.30 points to -3.10 points in March. On a y-o-y basis, the economic expectations index fell by 6.80 points.
In the US, the Census Bureau stated that durable goods orders grew by 1.40% m-o-m in February, following a 6.90% decline in the previous month and surpassing forecasts of a 1.10% growth.
The increase was led by a 3.30% rise in orders for transportation equipment in February. Motor vehicles and parts posted an increase of 1.80%. While machinery recorded a 1.90% m-o-m growth in February, the fabricated metal products sector reported an increase of 0.80 in the same period. Capital goods recorded a growth of 1.90%.
Excluding transportation, fresh orders inched up 0.50% m-o-m in February. Likewise, excluding defense, fresh orders grew by 2.20% m-o-m in February. Orders for non-defense capital goods, devoid of aircraft, inched up 0.70% in February.
According to the data published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), US house prices inched down 0.10% m-o-m in January, following a 0.10% rise in the previous month, missing forecasts of a 0.20% growth. On a y-o-y basis, house prices surged 6.30% in January 2024.
According to the US Conference Board, the country’s consumer confidence inched down to 104.70 in March from 104.80 in February, missing forecasts of 106.90.
The present situation index rose to 151 in March from 147.60 in February. In the meantime, the expectations index fell to 73.80 in March from 76.30 in February.
The flat economic data from both countries is expected to keep the EUR/USD pair range bound in the short term.
Technically, the EUR/USD pair is ascending after testing the support at 1.0805. The next resistance is anticipated to be only near 1.0940. Additionally, the currency pair is trading above its 50-day moving average, while the MACD indicator is showing a positive reading. Therefore, we anticipate the EUR/USD pair to remain in an uptrend in the near term.
Disclaimer: Any financial trading analysis offered here is our opinion and is not intended as advice or direction for investors. We cannot guarantee the success of any trades made as a consequence of this article, and we encourage traders to incorporate a strong money management strategy to limit losses when they enter the markets. Please use this article as part of your own research before formulating strategies prior to trading.
