Yesterday, the euro maintained a stable range against the US dollar after disappointing economic data came out from both Germany and the US. While the German industrial production data for March indicated contraction, the US wholesale inventories data for the same period aligned with estimates. Overall, the EUR/USD pair traded in a narrow range of 1.0739 to 1.0788 in the past 24 hours.
According to Destatis, German industrial production (excluding energy and construction) inched down 0.40% m-o-m in March following a 1.70% increase in the previous month but bettered forecasts of a 0.60% contraction.
Capital goods production rose by 0.10% m-o-m in March. On the contrary, consumer goods production decreased by 1.40% in the same period. The production of intermediate goods grew by 0.60% m-o-m in March.
Non-industrial energy production posted a fall of 4.20% m-o-m in March. However, the construction sector recorded a growth of 1%. Production remained unchanged in the energy-intensive industries in March.
On a y-o-y basis, German industrial production declined by 3.30% in March 2024. Also, as per the statistical agency, German industrial production grew by 1% in the three months ending March 2024 compared with the previous three months.
According to the data published by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, the country’s retail sales remained unchanged in March after a 0.10% growth in the previous month, but missed forecasts of a 0.20% increase.
Also, Italian retail sales (in volume terms) recorded a contract of 0.10% m-o-m in March.
Furthermore, sales value posted no growth in the March 2024 quarter. Italy’s sales volumes fell by 0.40% q-o-q in 1Q 2024.
On a y-o-y basis, Italy’s retail sales recorded 2% growth in March 2024. Similarly, sales volume inched up 0.30% in March.
Large-scale distribution posted an increase of 6.10% y-o-y in March 2024. However, small-scale distribution fell by 1.50% in the same period. Non-store retail sales declined by 2.60%.
Online sales, after five successive months of increase, fell by 2.40% y-o-y in March 2024.
Cosmetic and toilet articles recorded robust growth of 4.30%, while tools posted the steepest decrease of 7.50%.
According to the final data published by the US Census Bureau, the country’s wholesale inventories inched down 0.40% m-o-m in March to $894.70 billion, following an increase of 0.20% in the previous month. The initial estimates pegged a 0.40% decrease in wholesale inventories. Economists did not anticipate any change in the preliminary estimates.
Total inventories fell by 2.30% y-o-y in March 2024. Overall, the inventories/sales ratio dipped to 1.35 in March from 1.40 in the previous month.
The anticipated persistence of weak economic data from both nations is likely to maintain the EUR/USD pair within a limited trading range in the short term.
The historical price chart indicates that the EUR/USD is ascending after testing the support at 1.0620. The next resistance is anticipated to be only near 1.0980. Additionally, the currency pair is trading above its 50-day moving average, while the MACD indicator is showing a positive reading. Therefore, we anticipate the EUR/USD pair to remain in an uptrend for the next few trading sessions.
Disclaimer: Any financial trading analysis offered here is our opinion and is not intended as advice or direction for investors. We cannot guarantee the success of any trades made as a consequence of this article, and we encourage traders to incorporate a strong money management strategy to limit losses when they enter the markets. Please use this article as part of your own research before formulating strategies prior to trading.
