The euro remained range-bound against the Swiss franc on Monday following the release of slightly optimistic data from both the Eurozone and Switzerland. While the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index improved for the third successive month in January, the Swiss retail sales data for November surpassed estimates. Overall, the EUR/CHF pair traded in a range of between 0.9285 and 0.9317 in the past 24 hours.
According to Destatis, German factory orders inched up 0.30% m-o-m in November following a 3.80% decline in the previous month but missed the forecast of 1.10% growth.
Excluding large-scale orders, new orders inched down by 0.60% m-o-m in November 2023. The capital goods sector posted a growth rate of 0.80% m-o-m in November. Likewise, the consumer goods sector recorded an increase of 1.10% in November 2023. The intermediate sector reported a decline of 0.40% in the same period.
While domestic orders grew by 1.40%, overseas orders fell by 0.40%. The provisional data also indicated that real turnover in manufacturing fell by 0.70% m-o-m in November.
On a y-o-y basis, new orders fell by 4.40% in November 2023.
In a separate news release, Destatis stated that the German trade surplus rose to €20.40 billion in November from €17.70 billion in the previous month and surpassed forecasts of €17.90 billion. The reported figure reflects the biggest trade surplus since January 2021.
German exports rose by 3.70% m-o-m in November to a five-month high of €131.20 billion. Similarly, imports grew by 1.90% in the same period to €110.80 billion.
The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index improved to -15.80 in January, reflecting the highest level since May 2023, from -16.80 in the previous month but a few notches lower than forecasts of -15.50.
The Eurozone current situation index also improved for the third consecutive month to -22.50 in January from -23.50 in December. Likewise, the expectations index rose for the fourth successive month to -8.80 in January, reflecting the highest level since February 2023, from -9.80 in December.
In the US, the Sentix Investor Confidence index increased for the third successive month to 6.20 in January, reflecting the highest level since March 2022, from 5.60 in December. The current situation index, however, declined to 17.50 from 19.30. The expectation index improved to -4.50 from -7.30.
In Asia (excluding Japan), the Sentix Investor Confidence Index jumped for the third successive month to 6.70 in January, reflecting the highest level since August 2023, from 4.10 in December. The current situation index surged to 4.80 from 2. Similarly, the expectations index grew to 8.80 from 6.30.
According to the Federal Statistical Office, Switzerland’s consumer price index remained unchanged in December following a decline of 0.20% in the previous month, a notch better than forecasts of a 0.10% decrease.
Notably, Switzerland’s inflation grew by 1.70% y-o-y in December.
The Federal Statistical Office also stated that Switzerland’s retail sales inched up 0.70% y-o-y in November following a 0.30% decline in the previous month and surpassed forecasts of no change anticipated by economists.
Excluding service stations, the Swiss retail sector posted a 2% y-o-y rise in November 2023. The food, drink, and tobacco sectors recorded growth of 1.30% in the same period. Likewise, the non-food sector reported an increase of 2.70%.
The mixed economic data is expected to keep the EUR/CHF pair range-bound in the near term.
The historical price chart indicates that the EUR/CHF pair is consolidating near 0.9285. The currency pair is also trading above its 50-day moving average. Additionally, the MACD indicator is showing a positive reading. The next resistance is anticipated to be only near 0.9470. Therefore, we expect the EUR/CHF pair to gain ground in the days ahead.
Disclaimer: Any financial trading analysis offered here is our opinion and is not intended as advice or direction for investors. We cannot guarantee the success of any trades made as a consequence of this article, and we encourage traders to incorporate a strong money management strategy to limit losses when they enter the markets. Please use this article as part of your own research before formulating strategies prior to trading.
